Sound Insights

Your Medicare Bill Two Years From Now Is Being Decided Right Now

An open mailbox with an envelope inside, soft watercolor illustration representing a Medicare IRMAA surcharge letter.

Key Takeaways

  • IRMAA is calculated off your tax return from two years ago, which means your 2026 Medicare premium was already decided by your 2024 income, and what you do on your 2026 return is deciding your 2028 premium right now.
  • The 2026 surcharge brackets add anywhere from $81.20 to $487.00 a month to Part B alone once a single filer's income crosses $109,000, with a separate Part D surcharge stacked on top.
  • A Roth conversion, a large capital gain, or a distribution taken without checking the math first can push a retiree over a threshold, and nobody finds out until a letter arrives two years later.
  • Coordinated planning that ties investments, financial planning, and tax preparation together is what catches this before it happens, not after.

A woman came to us a few months after we'd onboarded her, holding a letter she didn't understand. Her previous advisor had been making moves on her behalf, a distribution here, an investment sale there, without ever once checking what those moves were doing to her income on paper. Nobody was watching the whole picture. And now the letter in her hand was telling her that her Medicare premium was about to jump by hundreds of dollars a month, because of income decisions made two years earlier by someone who never tracked where that number would land.

She kept asking the same question. Why didn't anyone tell me this was coming?

Honestly? I've asked that same question about a lot of advisors who aren't looking at the whole picture. It's a big part of why this post exists.

Here's the short version. IRMAA surcharges in 2026 are based on your 2024 tax return, not your current income. Single filers with 2024 income over $109,000 are paying anywhere from $81.20 to $487.00 more a month for Part B, plus a Part D surcharge on top. The decisions that avoid this happen two years before the bill ever shows up.

What IRMAA Actually Is

IRMAA stands for Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount. It's the surcharge Medicare adds to your Part B and Part D premiums once your income crosses certain thresholds, and it catches a lot of retirees off guard because it doesn't show up as a line on a tax return. It shows up as a bigger number on a Medicare bill, months or years after the income decision that caused it.

By the Numbers: For 2026, the standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 a month. Single filers with 2024 modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) at or under $109,000 pay that base amount with no surcharge. Above that, the surcharges stack in tiers: $81.20 more at $109,001-$137,000, $202.90 more at $137,001-$171,000, $324.60 more at $171,001-$205,000, $446.30 more at $205,001-$499,999, and $487.00 more at $500,000 and above. Part D carries its own surcharge on the same tiers, from $14.50 up to $91.00. Married couples filing jointly hit the identical surcharge amounts at exactly double the single-filer thresholds. Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles fact sheet.

That's real money. A single filer who crosses just the first threshold is paying almost $1,150 more a year for Part B alone, before Part D is even added in.

The Two-Year Rule

Here's the thing. Most articles about IRMAA leave out the part that actually matters if you want to do something about it. The income that sets your premium comes off your tax return from two years ago, not the one you just filed.

Key Insight: The Social Security Administration determines your IRMAA bracket using your tax return from two years prior, a mechanic laid out in the agency's own program guidance (POMS HI 01101.030, IRMAA Determination Process). Your 2026 premium was set by your 2024 return. Your 2026 return is quietly setting your 2028 premium right now, whether you're thinking about it or not.

That two-year gap is the whole story. It's why a retiree can make a perfectly reasonable decision this year, a large Roth conversion, a big capital gain from selling a rental property, an unusually large required distribution, and not feel any consequence at all until a letter shows up describing a premium increase that already happened somewhere in the paperwork, two years in the past by the time it lands.

The bracket you're in today was decided two years ago.

Most people meet IRMAA the same way that woman did, as a letter that already happened, past tense, with nothing left to do but pay it.

How This Plays Out

Say a couple is filing jointly with income normally sitting around $200,000. They're in a strong Roth conversion window and considering converting $30,000 this year to take advantage of a lower bracket while it lasts. That conversion alone could push their MAGI for the year past $218,000, the joint-filer threshold where the first IRMAA tier begins.

If nobody checks the math before the conversion happens, the couple doesn't feel anything this year. Two years from now, their Medicare Part B premium jumps by $81.20 a month per person, plus a Part D surcharge on top, and it stays there for that full year based on income they earned two years earlier. Run that same conversion with the IRMAA threshold checked first, and the couple might convert $25,000 instead of $30,000, stay under the line, and capture almost all the same tax benefit without triggering two years of higher Medicare premiums for both of them.

This example is illustrative, not a promise. Every household's actual numbers, deductions, and other income sources change where the real threshold sits, and the dollar figure will always be different for you. What stays the same is that somebody has to actually run that math before the decision gets made.

Watch Out: A large one-time event, a Roth conversion, the sale of a business or a rental property, a bigger-than-usual required distribution, can push MAGI over an IRMAA threshold without anyone noticing until the increase actually lands two years later. If the person recommending the move isn't also the person tracking your tax picture, that check often doesn't happen at all.

How We Do This Differently

That woman's previous advisor wasn't a bad person. He just didn't have the full picture, and in most advisory relationships, nobody is set up to have it. The investment recommendations come from one place. The tax return gets filed somewhere else, months later, by someone who never saw the distribution get made. By the time anyone connects the two, the decision is long finished and the only thing left to do is absorb the consequence.

We built Sound Wealth to close that gap. We manage the investments, we do the planning, and we handle the tax projection and preparation ourselves, under one roof. That means the person modeling a Roth conversion this year already knows what your MAGI needs to look like to stay clear of a Medicare surcharge two years from now, because it's the same person who will be preparing your return either way.

For the woman who came to us with that letter, there wasn't a way to undo it. The decisions that caused it were already two years old by the time we saw the numbers. What we could do was make sure it never happened again, because every recommendation from that point forward gets checked against the full picture before it's made, not after.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is IRMAA and who has to pay it?

IRMAA is the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, a surcharge Medicare adds to Part B and Part D premiums for people whose income crosses set thresholds. It applies to anyone enrolled in Medicare Part B or Part D whose modified adjusted gross income from two years earlier is above the base level, which for 2026 is $109,000 for single filers and $218,000 for married couples filing jointly.

How is my Medicare premium calculated for 2026?

Your 2026 premium is based on your 2024 tax return, specifically your modified adjusted gross income from that year. The Social Security Administration pulls this figure directly from the IRS and assigns you to one of six tiers, from no surcharge up to the highest bracket at $500,000 and above for single filers.

Can I appeal an IRMAA surcharge?

Yes, in specific circumstances. The Social Security Administration allows an appeal, called a life-changing event request, if your income has dropped since the tax year used to calculate your premium due to retirement, divorce, the death of a spouse, or a few other qualifying events. It does not apply simply because your income has changed for ordinary reasons like investment gains or a Roth conversion.

Does a Roth conversion trigger IRMAA?

A Roth conversion itself doesn't automatically trigger IRMAA, but the income it adds to your tax return can push your MAGI over a threshold if the conversion is large enough relative to your other income. Because the surcharge is based on income from two years earlier, the effect of a conversion made this year won't show up in your Medicare premium until two years from now.

When do IRMAA brackets reset each year?

The dollar thresholds are adjusted annually, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services publishes the new brackets and premium amounts each fall for the coming year. Your placement within those brackets is reassessed every year based on your tax return from two years prior, so a household can move between tiers from one year to the next as income changes.

If any of this resonates with you, whether there's a Roth conversion on the calendar or a decision already made without anyone checking the math, I'd genuinely love to have that conversation. And if you know someone, a parent, a friend, a business owner heading toward Medicare, who's never had anyone check this math for them, this is the kind of post worth forwarding.

This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. IRMAA determinations, appeals, and Medicare enrollment decisions depend on your specific circumstances; consult the Social Security Administration or a qualified professional before making decisions based on this information. Your situation will vary, and the right course of action depends on facts and circumstances we cannot anticipate from a blog post. Sound Wealth LLC is a state-registered investment advisor in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Texas. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you coordinate with my existing CPA or attorney?

Yes. We regularly collaborate with clients' existing tax professionals, estate attorneys, and insurance specialists. If you'd prefer to keep those relationships and have Sound Wealth handle planning and investments, we'll coordinate with your current team. If you'd prefer an integrated approach, our Sound Tax practice can bring tax preparation and planning in-house alongside your financial plan.

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We start by listening — you share where you are, where you want to go, and what matters most. Then we build a plan around your real life: family, business, taxes, goals. Once it's in place, we help you implement it and stay with you as things change. You won't be left alone to figure it out.

What credentials does Matt Reakus hold?

Matt Reakus holds four credentials: CFP® (Certified Financial Planner), CKA® (Certified Kingdom Advisor), CEPA (Certified Exit Planning Advisor), and Enrolled Agent (EA) licensed to represent clients before the IRS. Together, they cover financial planning, investment management, tax strategy, and business exit planning — the four disciplines most often needed together. The CKA® specifically is the recognized standard for advisors integrating biblical stewardship into their practice.

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Disclosure: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Sound Wealth LLC is a registered investment advisor in the states of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Texas. Advisory services are only offered in states where Sound Wealth is registered or exempt from registration. Please consult your financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before making decisions based on this information. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.